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0xfbf3…b218 · Polymarket trader | Prediction Market News0X
0xfbf3…b218
0xfbf3d501e88815464642d0e913f15379c3eeb218
Secondary: Scalper
This wallet is categorized as a Tilted Gambler because size and pacing escalate after losses, with a strong disposition effect.
Tilt ratio is 4.74 and disposition ratio 0.09, so losses tend to be followed by larger or faster activity.
Ticket size is jumpy (stdev/median 992.3), another sign of reactive sizing rather than a steady plan.
A close second label is Scalper, so the book also shows some of that style.
Separately, skill grade F scores forecast quality (Brier/CLV/risk-adjusted return) and is not part of the behavioral label.
Updated 2026-07-19 15:47:06 UTC
Window metrics
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|
| PnL (leaderboard) | N/A | N/A | $314k | ∞ |
| Realized PnL | $8.01k | $20.8k | $-1.31M | ∞ |
| Win rate | 100% | 100% | 42% | 46% |
| ROI | 366% | 335% | -57% | 5% |
| Sharpe (daily) | ∞ | 0.597 | 0.174 | 0.036 |
| Markets | 12 | 29 | 132 | 773 |
| Best day | $-2.18k | $6.31k |
Performance
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|
| Profit factor | ∞ | ∞ | 0.30 | 1.11 |
| Mean trade PnL | $1.34k | $1.48k | $-8.38k | $721 |
| Median trade PnL | $1.25k | $1.32k | $-26 | $-1 |
| Payoff ratio | N/A | N/A | 0.42 | 1.32 |
| Largest win | $2.7k | $3.63k | $93.8k | $283k |
| Largest loss | N/A | N/A | $-185k | $-202k |
| Expectancy | $1.34k |
Risk
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|
| PnL volatility | N/A | $3.22k | $58.9k | $61.7k |
| Sortino (daily) | ∞ | ∞ | 0.589 | 0.034 |
| Calmar | 1.378 | 1.378 | 1.378 | 1.378 |
| Drawdown duration (days) | 44.0 | 44.0 | 44.0 | 44.0 |
Consistency
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|
| Concentration top-1 | 34% | 17% | 8% | 1% |
| Concentration top-5 | 95% | 56% | 30% | 4% |
| Concentration top-10 | 100% | 87% | 50% | 8% |
| Max win streak | 6 | 14 | 29 | 47 |
| Max loss streak | N/A | N/A | 43 | 117 |
| Odds bucket | 24h win rate | 7d win rate | 30d win rate | All-time win rate | Notional (all) |
|---|
|
Activity
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|
| Trade count | 20 | 39 | 1907 | 18139 |
| Unique markets | 12 | 29 | 132 | 773 |
| Active days ratio | 200% | 80% | 77% | 83% |
| Avg entry price | 0.155 | 0.173 | 0.315 | 0.551 |
| Portfolio HHI | 0.121 | 0.079 | 0.072 | 0.008 |
| Maker share (notional) | 1% | 0% | 33% | 51% |
| Two-sided share | N/A |
Behavior
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|
| Holding time avg (h) | 1.9 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 1.3 |
| Holding time median (h) | 0.8 | 2.5 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Max concurrent | 12 | 27 | 88 | 292 |
| Disposition ratio | 5.59 | 4.29 | 0.17 | 0.09 |
| Add-to-winner share | 0% | 0% | 50% | 30% |
| Average-down share | 100% | 100% | 41% | 62% |
| Tilt ratio | N/A |
Markets / calibration
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|
| Held to resolution | 100% | 93% | 65% | 37% |
| Brier (weighted) | 0.5519 | 0.5510 | 0.2215 | 0.2305 |
| Brier (unweighted) | 0.5635 | 0.5591 | 0.2622 | 0.2201 |
| Entry timing mean | 0.984 | 0.951 | 0.907 | 0.925 |
| Exit quality ($) | $-0 | $-23 | $422 | $137 |
| Exit quality ROI gap | -0.0% | -3.1% | 0.1% | -0.2% |
Style
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|
| CLV mean | -0.1614 | -0.1614 | -0.1614 | -0.1614 |
| Alpha ($) | $-10.6k | $-10.6k | $-10.6k | $-10.6k |
| Alpha ROI gap | -22.8% | -22.8% | -22.8% | -22.8% |
| Contrarian score | 0.469 | 0.469 | 0.469 | 0.469 |
| Post-fill drift | -0.2193 | -0.2193 | -0.2193 | -0.2193 |
| Post-fill candles (mean) | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.4 |
| Post-fill observations |
Archetype scores
- Tilted Gambler: 70.0%
- Scalper: 67.4%
- News Sniper: 59.0%
- Contrarian Fader: 25.9%
- Longshot Hunter: 16.9%
| Worst day | $-2.18k | $-2.18k | $-60.8k | $-423k |
| 0.10–0.40 | 100% | 100% | 46% | 36% | 30% |
| 0.40–0.60 | 100% | 100% | 36% | 47% | 55% |
| Spread capture | N/A | N/A | 0.1565 | 0.0567 |
| Inventory turnover | 20.00 | 39.00 | 1907.00 | 18139.00 |
| Capital velocity | 2.78 | 2.96 | 0.42 | 1.05 |
| Avg ticket | $304 | $469 | $510 | $1.56k |
| Median ticket | $272 | $456 | $18 | $12 |
| Activity slope (fills/week) | N/A | N/A | -50.20 | -108.58 |
| Category | PnL (all) | Win rate | n |
|---|
| Sports | $1.52M | 47% | 1309 |
| Tennis | $-60k | 34% | 41 |
| Esports | $36.8k | 44% | 525 |
| UFC 325 | $-24.7k | 60% | 5 |
| Boxing | $-2.37k | 0% | 3 |
| Formula 1 | $-2.18k | 20% | 5 |
| Trump | $-2.14k | 85% | 13 |
| uncategorized | $-1.56k | 0% | 3 |
| Ethereum | $980 | 100% | 1 |
| Solana | $883 | 50% | 4 |
| NHL | $-640 | 14% | 29 |
| oleksandr usyk | $-500 | 0% | 1 |
| Market (condition) | PnL | Cost | ROI |
|---|
| 0x5e9b626a… | $283k | $98.1k | 288.4% |
| 0xa17b3bd2… | $260k | $128k | 202.7% |
| 0x4b4fbe43… | $259k | $150k | 173.1% |
| 0x68baa454… | $-202k | $202k | -100.0% |
| 0x442045c9… | $195k | $94.8k | 205.6% |
| 0x976c4dae… | $-193k | $193k | -100.0% |
| 0xc775ae21… | $189k | $220k | 86.0% |
| 0x83e3bd62… | $-185k | $185k | -100.0% |
| 0x6b2f74df… | $179k | $73.3k | 244.5% |
| 0x38b4723d… | $175k | $190k | 92.1% |
| 0xb15f3f9f… | $174k | $49.2k | 354.1% |
| 0x998d69f8… | $170k | $81.5k | 208.3% |
| 0x0433839b… | $167k | $87k | 192.5% |
| 0xb5aa9e7e… | $160k | $131k | 122.0% |
| 0x8246b715… | $156k | $69k | 226.3% |