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0xf8831548531d56ad6a4331493243c447a827cd1f
Secondary: Early-Bird Forecaster
This wallet is categorized as a Tilted Gambler because size and pacing escalate after losses, with a strong disposition effect.
Tilt ratio is 3.82 and disposition ratio 0.35, so losses tend to be followed by larger or faster activity.
Ticket size is jumpy (stdev/median 1386.5), another sign of reactive sizing rather than a steady plan.
A close second label is Early-Bird Forecaster, so the book also shows some of that style.
Separately, skill grade D scores forecast quality (Brier/CLV/risk-adjusted return) and is not part of the behavioral label.
Updated 2026-07-19 15:42:18 UTC
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PnL (leaderboard) | N/A | N/A | N/A | ∞ |
| Realized PnL | $0 | $-2.42M | $-2.42M | ∞ |
| Win rate | N/A | 17% | 17% | 74% |
| ROI | N/A | -100% | -100% | 19% |
| Sharpe (daily) | N/A | -1.891 | 0.202 | 0.267 |
| Markets | 0 | 1 | 1 | 28 |
| Best day | N/A | $0 |
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit factor | N/A | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.65 |
| Mean trade PnL | N/A | $-404k | $-404k | $129k |
| Median trade PnL | N/A | $-284k | $-284k | $37.6k |
| Payoff ratio | N/A | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.92 |
| Largest win | N/A | $1 | $1 | ∞ |
| Largest loss | N/A | $-1.19M | $-1.19M | $-1.19M |
| Expectancy | N/A |
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PnL volatility | N/A | N/A | $0 | $305k |
| Sortino (daily) | N/A | -0.736 | 0.082 | 0.250 |
| Calmar | 5.383 | 5.383 | 5.383 | 5.383 |
| Drawdown duration (days) | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 |
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Concentration top-1 | N/A | 49% | 49% | 13% |
| Concentration top-5 | N/A | 100% | 100% | 57% |
| Concentration top-10 | N/A | 100% | 100% | 82% |
| Max win streak | N/A | 1 | 1 | 15 |
| Max loss streak | N/A | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Odds bucket | 24h win rate | 7d win rate | 30d win rate | All-time win rate | Notional (all) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trade count | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2239 |
| Unique markets | 0 | 1 | 1 | 28 |
| Active days ratio | N/A | 100% | 100% | 29% |
| Avg entry price | N/A | N/A | N/A | 0.742 |
| Portfolio HHI | N/A | 1.000 | 1.000 | 0.129 |
| Maker share (notional) | N/A | 0% | 0% | 5% |
| Two-sided share | N/A |
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Holding time avg (h) | N/A | N/A | N/A | 4.0 |
| Holding time median (h) | N/A | N/A | N/A | 1.7 |
| Max concurrent | N/A | N/A | N/A | 27 |
| Disposition ratio | N/A | N/A | N/A | 0.35 |
| Add-to-winner share | N/A | N/A | N/A | 84% |
| Average-down share | N/A | N/A | N/A | 11% |
| Tilt ratio | N/A |
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Held to resolution | N/A | N/A | N/A | 97% |
| Brier (weighted) | N/A | 0.6344 | 0.6344 | 0.1341 |
| Brier (unweighted) | N/A | 0.4817 | 0.4817 | 0.1889 |
| Entry timing mean | N/A | N/A | N/A | 0.314 |
| Exit quality ($) | N/A | $0 | $0 | $-0 |
| Exit quality ROI gap | N/A | 0.0% | 0.0% | -0.0% |
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLV mean | -0.1436 | -0.1436 | -0.1436 | -0.1436 |
| Alpha ($) | $-56k | $-56k | $-56k | $-56k |
| Alpha ROI gap | -9.9% | -9.9% | -9.9% | -9.9% |
| Contrarian score | -0.359 | -0.359 | -0.359 | -0.359 |
| Post-fill drift | -0.1355 | -0.1355 | -0.1355 | -0.1355 |
| Post-fill candles (mean) | 4.6 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 4.6 |
| Post-fill observations |
| $0 |
| ∞ |
| Worst day | N/A | $0 | $-0 | $-791k |
Completeness: partial. Null metrics render as N/A, never zero. Full methodology
| $-404k |
| $-404k |
| $129k |
| <0.10 |
| N/A |
| N/A |
| N/A |
| N/A |
| 0% |
| 0.10–0.40 | N/A | N/A | N/A | 60% | 1% |
| 0.40–0.60 | N/A | 0% | 0% | 63% | 12% |
| 0.60–0.90 | N/A | 33% | 33% | 88% | 80% |
| >0.90 | N/A | 0% | 0% | 50% | 7% |
| N/A |
| N/A |
| N/A |
| Spread capture | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Inventory turnover | N/A | 1.00 | 1.00 | 2239.00 |
| Capital velocity | N/A | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| Avg ticket | N/A | $11 | $11 | $9.27k |
| Median ticket | N/A | $11 | $11 | $41 |
| Activity slope (fills/week) | N/A | N/A | N/A | -159.11 |
| Quiet weeks | N/A | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| N/A |
| N/A |
| 3.82 |
| Category | PnL (all) | Win rate | n |
|---|
| Tennis | $4.33M | 74% | 27 |
| Sports | $-346k | 67% | 3 |
| LA | $1 | 100% | 1 |
| Market (condition) | PnL | Cost | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0x221b05db… | $1.19M | $4.97M | 23.9% |
| 0x47a88a03… | $-1.19M | $1.19M | -100.0% |
| 0x4d6be440… | $1.1M | $1.15M | 95.7% |
| 0x06f20c6d… | $869k | $3.85M | 22.6% |
| 0x541156e5… | $707k | $2.63M | 26.8% |
| 0x08529def… | $-598k | $598k | -100.0% |
| 0x1c28ae00… | $527k | $2M | 26.4% |
| 0xdc09be65… | $367k | $392k | 93.6% |
| 0x68b0ae45… | $361k | $732k | 49.3% |
| 0x976c6590… | $-301k | $301k | -100.0% |
| 0x8c3b22b2… | $-267k | $267k | -100.0% |
| 0x8ae3768a… | $248k | $133k | 186.4% |
| 0xeecf983d… | $242k | $361k | 67.0% |
| 0xa3e5f062… | $171k | $101k | 169.1% |
| 0xbc416b4f… | $144k | $194k | 74.4% |
| 2239 |
| 2239 |
| 2239 |
| 2239 |