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0xe734…4f0c
0xe734e7bf7cfb9e464681f71822f6c2f6be514f0c
This wallet is categorized as a Tilted Gambler because size and pacing escalate after losses, with a strong disposition effect.
Tilt ratio is 5.18 and disposition ratio 1.11, so losses tend to be followed by larger or faster activity.
Ticket size is jumpy (stdev/median 163.8), another sign of reactive sizing rather than a steady plan.
Separately, skill grade D scores forecast quality (Brier/CLV/risk-adjusted return) and is not part of the behavioral label.
A statistically unusual win pattern flag is present (cheap held-to-resolution wins with a very low joint entry probability); it does not change the behavioral archetype.
Updated 2026-07-19 15:04:43 UTC
Lifetime PnL
$790k
Open PnL
$-50.6k
Max drawdown
$226k
Underwater days
24
Equity curve
Board ranks
Window metrics
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PnL (leaderboard) | N/A | N/A | N/A | $790k |
| Realized PnL | $9.19k | $23.3k | $336k | $871k |
| Win rate | 100% | 83% | 58% | 55% |
| ROI | 155% | 25% | 23% | 18% |
| Sharpe (daily) | ∞ | -0.134 | 0.126 | 0.144 |
| Markets | 7 | 22 | 111 | 241 |
| Best day | $-511 | $35.6k |
Performance
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit factor | ∞ | 15.77 | 3.65 | 2.19 |
| Mean trade PnL | $3.06k | $1.95k | $2.92k | $3.08k |
| Median trade PnL | $2.08k | $666 | $77 | $17 |
| Payoff ratio | N/A | 3.15 | 2.65 | 1.78 |
| Largest win | $6.4k | $6.4k | $133k | $196k |
| Largest loss | N/A | $-1.55k | $-16.7k | $-67.3k |
| Expectancy | $3.06k |
Risk
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PnL volatility | N/A | $23.9k | $29.8k | $38k |
| Sortino (daily) | ∞ | -0.120 | 0.216 | 0.233 |
| Calmar | 3.495 | 3.495 | 3.495 | 3.495 |
| Drawdown duration (days) | 21.0 | 21.0 | 21.0 | 21.0 |
Consistency
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Concentration top-1 | 70% | 24% | 23% | 9% |
| Concentration top-5 | 100% | 88% | 43% | 29% |
| Concentration top-10 | 100% | 100% | 57% | 41% |
| Max win streak | 3 | 7 | 17 | 17 |
| Max loss streak | N/A | 1 | 29 | 29 |
| Odds bucket | 24h win rate | 7d win rate | 30d win rate | All-time win rate | Notional (all) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Activity
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trade count | 45 | 578 | 3608 | 24023 |
| Unique markets | 7 | 22 | 111 | 241 |
| Active days ratio | 200% | 114% | 103% | 100% |
| Avg entry price | 0.556 | 0.383 | 0.271 | 0.281 |
| Portfolio HHI | 0.228 | 0.146 | 0.040 | 0.019 |
| Maker share (notional) | 88% | 46% | 58% | 46% |
| Two-sided share | 0% |
Behavior
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Holding time avg (h) | 0.4 | 34.5 | 44.3 | 110.6 |
| Holding time median (h) | 0.4 | 9.9 | 21.8 | 40.6 |
| Max concurrent | 2 | 11 | 52 | 151 |
| Disposition ratio | N/A | 0.03 | 1.09 | 1.11 |
| Add-to-winner share | 15% | 67% | 61% | 64% |
| Average-down share | 62% | 33% | 33% | 35% |
| Tilt ratio | N/A |
Markets / calibration
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Held to resolution | 50% | 11% | 42% | 60% |
| Brier (weighted) | 0.3832 | 0.3683 | 0.1160 | 0.1369 |
| Brier (unweighted) | 0.3596 | 0.3716 | 0.1436 | 0.1251 |
| Entry timing mean | 0.638 | 0.537 | 0.641 | 0.559 |
| Exit quality ($) | $-150 | $-75 | $-1.11k | $-821 |
| Exit quality ROI gap | -4.5% | -2.3% | 4.1% | 17.5% |
Style
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLV mean | -0.0877 | -0.0877 | -0.0877 | -0.0877 |
| Alpha ($) | $-52.1k | $-52.1k | $-52.1k | $-52.1k |
| Alpha ROI gap | -36.0% | -36.0% | -36.0% | -36.0% |
| Contrarian score | 0.152 | 0.152 | 0.152 | 0.152 |
| Post-fill drift | -0.0067 | -0.0067 | -0.0067 | -0.0067 |
| Post-fill candles (mean) | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 |
| Post-fill observations |
Archetype scores
- Tilted Gambler: 71.1%
- Scalper: 50.6%
- Early-Bird Forecaster: 32.9%
- Conviction Holder: 31.0%
- News Sniper: 26.4%
Statistically unusual win pattern
Joint probability 3.40e-8; confirmers: size_outlier, unhedged_contrast. Statistical flag only — not an accusation.
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