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P Prediction Market News
Cross-venue Polymarket and Kalshi odds, consensus prices, volume, open interest, spread, and resolution rules. Not investment advice.
0xd3b0…329e · Polymarket trader | Prediction Market News
Traders / 0xd3b0…329e 0xd3b0…329e 0xd3b034d7bfb2473fb252d0414646d9786bac329e
This wallet is categorized as a Scalper because it trades frequently, exits quickly, and rarely holds to resolution.
Trade count is 6000 with median hold 0.0 hours, maker share only 43%.
Capital velocity 0.3 and held-to-resolution 61% point to selling out rather than waiting for settlement.
Separately, skill grade C scores forecast quality (Brier/CLV/risk-adjusted return) and is not part of the behavioral label.
A statistically unusual win pattern flag is present (cheap held-to-resolution wins with a very low joint entry probability); it does not change the behavioral archetype.
Updated 2026-07-19 14:35:53 UTC
Window metrics Metric 24h 7d 30d All-time PnL (leaderboard) $6.87k N/A N/A N/A Realized PnL $32.9k $-55.3k $-63.2k $198k Win rate 100% 58% 60% 59% ROI 59% -16% -4% 2% Sharpe (daily) ∞ 0.000 -0.123 0.024 Markets 9 68 288 376 Best day $0 $14k
Performance Metric 24h 7d 30d All-time Profit factor ∞ 0.67 0.90 1.05 Mean trade PnL $4.12k $-747 $-219 $69 Median trade PnL $3.09k $1.32k $1.12k $319 Payoff ratio N/A 0.48 0.60 0.72 Largest win $10.8k $10.8k $27.3k $169k Largest loss N/A $-30.5k $-72.9k $-256k Expectancy $4.12k
Risk Metric 24h 7d 30d All-time PnL volatility N/A $10.1k $28.9k $35.9k Sortino (daily) ∞ 0.000 -0.057 0.014 Calmar 0.241 0.241 0.241 0.241 Drawdown duration (days) 37.5 37.5 37.5 37.5
Consistency Metric 24h 7d 30d All-time Concentration top-1 33% 11% 6% 3% Concentration top-5 80% 30% 20% 10% Concentration top-10 100% 46% 28% 14% Max win streak 8 17 17 128 Max loss streak N/A 11 11 101
Odds bucket 24h win rate 7d win rate 30d win rate All-time win rate Notional (all)
Activity Metric 24h 7d 30d All-time Trade count 32 525 3602 6000 Unique markets 9 68 288 376 Active days ratio 200% 117% 103% 103% Avg entry price 0.586 0.575 0.556 0.561 Portfolio HHI 0.126 0.024 0.010 0.022 Maker share (notional) 13% 32% 41% 43% Two-sided share N/A
Behavior Metric 24h 7d 30d All-time Holding time avg (h) 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.5 Holding time median (h) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Max concurrent 9 51 193 233 Disposition ratio 0.00 0.06 0.11 0.07 Add-to-winner share 83% 49% 60% 64% Average-down share 17% 38% 34% 31% Tilt ratio N/A
Markets / calibration Metric 24h 7d 30d All-time Held to resolution 100% 71% 66% 61% Brier (weighted) 0.1776 0.2382 0.1998 0.2180 Brier (unweighted) 0.2489 0.2291 0.2079 0.2158 Entry timing mean 0.842 0.783 0.824 0.831 Exit quality ($) $-0 $-21 $-7 $-3 Exit quality ROI gap -0.0% -2.1% 0.1% -0.2%
Style Metric 24h 7d 30d All-time CLV mean 0.0690 0.0690 0.0690 0.0690 Alpha ($) $3.71k $3.71k $3.71k $3.71k Alpha ROI gap -5.7% -5.7% -5.7% -5.7% Contrarian score -0.153 -0.153 -0.153 -0.153 Post-fill drift 0.0691 0.0691 0.0691 0.0691 Post-fill candles (mean) 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 Post-fill observations
Archetype scores Scalper: 60.0% News Sniper: 51.5% Contrarian Fader: 34.0% Tilted Gambler: 30.0% Conviction Holder: 27.4% Worst day $0 $-20k $-128k $-353k
0.40–0.60 100% 55% 50% 54% 38%
0.60–0.90 100% 69% 76% 74% 55%
Spread capture N/A 0.0032 0.0107 0.0134
Inventory turnover 32.00 525.00 3602.00 6000.00
Capital velocity 1.13 0.80 1.03 0.33
Avg ticket $1.97k $526 $457 $589
Median ticket $810 $99 $39 $37
Activity slope (fills/week) N/A N/A -249.30 -346.29
Category PnL (all) Win rate n
Esports $197k 59% 2809 Sports $-523 41% 29 lol $508 100% 1 CS2 $480 100% 1 uncategorized $172 63% 8 Tennis $81 40% 5 Culture $-65 0% 2
Market (condition) PnL Cost ROI 0x7c7ad651… $-256k $256k -100.0% 0x4bea3fe3… $-216k $216k -100.0% 0x54e133e2… $169k $228k 74.1% 0x18013537… $-102k $102k -100.0% 0x823b2534… $-77.8k $77.8k -100.0% 0xaf503d0b… $-72.9k $72.9k -100.0% 0x2017df79… $-70.4k $70.4k -100.0% 0xdb239c8f… $55.8k $34.2k 163.2% 0x8b9176d2… $-53.1k $53.1k -100.0% 0x07df66c4… $-51.3k $51.3k -100.0% 0xba8426be… $-50.4k $50.4k -100.0% 0xa127ef9c… $50.3k $37.9k 132.7% 0x88af4761… $-43.2k $43.2k -100.0% 0x5a041edf… $-42.7k $42.7k -100.0% 0xaee91816… $33.6k $35k 96.0%
0x854c990fd9… entry 0.290
0x58154442c4… entry 0.290
0x3856d3af20… entry 0.220
0x277793e96d… entry 0.291
0xd2d27d2e13… entry 0.265
0x5984babd66… entry 0.280
0xf8230c7c7a… entry 0.243
0xb1b59f150b… entry 0.271
0xb42ab58ec7… entry 0.292
0x3a685c5055… entry 0.250
0xca58d2e43e… entry 0.210
0xf8db30c69d… entry 0.240
0x2c5a44bcc9… entry 0.220
0x6aeec0c126… entry 0.258
0x5990668137… entry 0.281
0x7cfd5a588b… entry 0.290
0x44744fd3f5… entry 0.230
0xc13af363e2… entry 0.259
0xcbe6ac30b3… entry 0.230
0xf3c9975e75… entry 0.269
0x25842c7e42… entry 0.250
0x39c4330d34… entry 0.130
0x4985fb3360… entry 0.271
0x046d2ef1a1… entry 0.243
0x9b43f21b61… entry 0.290
0x09326ab3f9… entry 0.117
0x6c94dff54a… entry 0.299
0x11f34484b0… entry 0.292