0xc2c8…5471

0xc2c89e23a69936da2991ddffdc7c99d4f0bd5471

Favorite GrinderGrade CStatistically unusual win patternarchetypes-v1

This wallet is categorized as a Favorite Grinder because most of its notional sits in high-priced (favorite) outcomes.

43% of closed cost sits above 90¢, so structural win rate is high (87%) while payoff ratio stays compressed (0.37).

That mix is the classic grind: many small favorite wins, occasional cliff losses when a favorite fails.

Separately, skill grade C scores forecast quality (Brier/CLV/risk-adjusted return) and is not part of the behavioral label.

A statistically unusual win pattern flag is present (cheap held-to-resolution wins with a very low joint entry probability); it does not change the behavioral archetype.

Updated 2026-07-19 13:23:46 UTC

Lifetime PnL

$331k

Open PnL

$-729k

Max drawdown

$11.8k

Underwater days

Equity curve

Board ranks

pnl:1d

#22new

Window metrics

Metric	24h	7d	30d	All-time
PnL (leaderboard)	N/A	$30.6k	$77.1k	N/A
Realized PnL	$24.2k	$30.7k	$688k	∞
Win rate	100%	83%	97%	87%
ROI	5%	2%	6%	5%
Sharpe (daily)	∞	0.508	0.656	0.282
Markets	18	42	42	42
Best day	$435	$24k

Performance

Metric	24h	7d	30d	All-time
Profit factor	∞	25.49	10.70	2.44
Mean trade PnL	$2.02k	$878	$754	$384
Median trade PnL	$1.4k	$90	$538	$100
Payoff ratio	N/A	5.27	0.29	0.37
Largest win	$9.82k	$9.82k	$11.6k	$34.9k
Largest loss	N/A	$-511	$-10.8k	$-29.8k
Expectancy	$2.02k

Risk

Metric	24h	7d	30d	All-time
PnL volatility	N/A	$8.66k	$6.71k	$3.19k
Sortino (daily)	∞	0.609	1.072	0.609
Calmar	27.952	27.952	27.952	27.952
Drawdown duration (days)	4.0	4.0	4.0	4.0

Consistency

Metric	24h	7d	30d	All-time
Concentration top-1	41%	30%	1%	3%
Concentration top-5	81%	62%	7%	11%
Concentration top-10	100%	86%	12%	19%
Max win streak	12	18	137	188
Max loss streak	N/A	1	2	11

Odds bucket	24h win rate	7d win rate	30d win rate	All-time win rate	Notional (all)

Activity

Metric	24h	7d	30d	All-time
Trade count	1704	5998	5998	5998
Unique markets	18	42	42	42
Active days ratio	200%	100%	100%	100%
Avg entry price	0.850	0.909	0.909	0.909
Portfolio HHI	0.100	0.053	0.053	0.053
Maker share (notional)	97%	95%	95%	95%
Two-sided share	17%

Behavior

Metric	24h	7d	30d	All-time
Holding time avg (h)	2.5	10.4	10.4	10.4
Holding time median (h)	2.9	3.6	3.6	3.6
Max concurrent	9	25	25	25
Disposition ratio	38.66	0.44	0.44	0.44
Add-to-winner share	72%	0%	0%	0%
Average-down share	26%	0%	0%	0%
Tilt ratio	N/A

Markets / calibration

Metric	24h	7d	30d	All-time
Held to resolution	71%	64%	64%	64%
Brier (weighted)	0.0144	0.0293	0.0237	0.0906
Brier (unweighted)	0.0889	0.0569	0.0235	0.0660
Entry timing mean	0.943	0.783	0.783	0.783
Exit quality ($)	$-4.54k	$-2.65k	$-585	$-391
Exit quality ROI gap	-48.9%	-12.5%	-1.8%	-0.2%

Style

Metric	24h	7d	30d	All-time
CLV mean	0.0122	0.0122	0.0122	0.0122
Alpha ($)	$-845	$-845	$-845	$-845
Alpha ROI gap	-118.4%	-118.4%	-118.4%	-118.4%
Contrarian score	0.154	0.154	0.154	0.154
Post-fill drift	0.0023	0.0023	0.0023	0.0023
Post-fill candles (mean)	5.0	5.0	5.0	5.0
Post-fill observations

Archetype scores

Favorite Grinder: 65.0%
Scalper: 45.0%
News Sniper: 42.9%
Tilted Gambler: 30.0%
Early-Bird Forecaster: 24.6%

Statistically unusual win pattern

Joint probability 6.23e-237; confirmers: size_outlier, unhedged_contrast. Statistical flag only — not an accusation.

0xcf90f14efb… entry 0.092
0xbf621bfb03… entry 0.040
0x32cfa52198… entry 0.017
0x3da2921584… entry 0.114
0xd439bd81f1… entry 0.060
0x26491f69a8… entry 0.050
0x354906843f… entry 0.080
0xff1ec56e0e… entry 0.164
0xe2c2cba80c… entry 0.090
0x2fcf3968f5… entry 0.100
0xa90ce8b69a… entry 0.150
0x2e9f90013e… entry 0.120
0x9be56371f6… entry 0.044
0x4587d40327… entry 0.100
0x8a4da621c5… entry 0.080
0xa5501b4dc0… entry 0.083
0xd0dbdc94b2… entry 0.003
0x090a23220f… entry 0.029
0x1595b4818e… entry 0.051
0xbce6698c9a… entry 0.001
0x5e61473936… entry 0.002

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0xc2c8…5471

0xc2c89e23a69936da2991ddffdc7c99d4f0bd5471

This wallet is categorized as a Favorite Grinder because most of its notional sits in high-priced (favorite) outcomes.

43% of closed cost sits above 90¢, so structural win rate is high (87%) while payoff ratio stays compressed (0.37).

That mix is the classic grind: many small favorite wins, occasional cliff losses when a favorite fails.

Separately, skill grade C scores forecast quality (Brier/CLV/risk-adjusted return) and is not part of the behavioral label.

A statistically unusual win pattern flag is present (cheap held-to-resolution wins with a very low joint entry probability); it does not change the behavioral archetype.

Metric

24h

30d

All-time

PnL (leaderboard)

N/A

$30.6k

$77.1k

N/A

Realized PnL

$24.2k

$30.7k

$688k

∞

Win rate

100%

83%

97%

87%

ROI

Sharpe (daily)

∞

0.508

0.656

0.282

Markets

Best day

$435

$24k

Metric

24h

30d

All-time

Profit factor

∞

25.49

10.70

2.44

Mean trade PnL

$2.02k

$878

$754

$384

Median trade PnL

$1.4k

$90

$538

$100

Payoff ratio

N/A

5.27

0.29

0.37

Largest win

$9.82k

$11.6k

$34.9k

Largest loss

N/A

$-511

$-10.8k

$-29.8k

Expectancy

$2.02k

Metric

24h

30d

All-time

PnL volatility

N/A

$8.66k

$6.71k

$3.19k

Sortino (daily)

∞

0.609

1.072

0.609

Calmar

27.952

Drawdown duration (days)

4.0

Metric

24h

30d

All-time

Concentration top-1

41%

30%

Concentration top-5

81%

62%

11%

Concentration top-10

100%

86%

12%

19%

Max win streak

137

188

Max loss streak

N/A

Odds bucket

24h win rate

7d win rate

30d win rate

All-time win rate

Notional (all)

Metric

24h

30d

All-time

Trade count

1704

5998

Unique markets

Active days ratio

200%

100%

Avg entry price

0.850

0.909

Portfolio HHI

0.100

0.053

Maker share (notional)

97%

95%

Two-sided share

17%

Metric

24h

30d

All-time

Holding time avg (h)

2.5

10.4

Holding time median (h)

2.9

3.6

Max concurrent

Disposition ratio

38.66

0.44

Add-to-winner share

72%

Average-down share

26%

Tilt ratio

N/A

Metric

24h

30d

All-time

Held to resolution

71%

64%

Brier (weighted)

0.0144

0.0293

0.0237

0.0906

Brier (unweighted)

0.0889

0.0569

0.0235

0.0660

Entry timing mean

0.943

0.783

Exit quality ($)

$-4.54k

$-2.65k

$-585

$-391

Exit quality ROI gap

-48.9%

-12.5%

-1.8%

-0.2%

Metric

24h

30d

All-time

CLV mean

0.0122

Alpha ($)

$-845

Alpha ROI gap

-118.4%

Contrarian score

0.154

Post-fill drift

0.0023

Post-fill candles (mean)

5.0

Post-fill observations

Archetype scores

Favorite Grinder: 65.0%

Scalper: 45.0%

News Sniper: 42.9%

Tilted Gambler: 30.0%

Early-Bird Forecaster: 24.6%

Statistically unusual win pattern

Joint probability 6.23e-237; confirmers: size_outlier, unhedged_contrast. Statistical flag only — not an accusation.

0xcf90f14efb… entry 0.092
0xbf621bfb03… entry 0.040
0x32cfa52198… entry 0.017
0x3da2921584… entry 0.114
0xd439bd81f1… entry 0.060
0x26491f69a8… entry 0.050
0x354906843f… entry 0.080
0xff1ec56e0e… entry 0.164
0xe2c2cba80c… entry 0.090
0x2fcf3968f5… entry 0.100
0xa90ce8b69a… entry 0.150
0x2e9f90013e… entry 0.120
0x9be56371f6… entry 0.044
0x4587d40327… entry 0.100
0x8a4da621c5… entry 0.080
0xa5501b4dc0… entry 0.083
0xd0dbdc94b2… entry 0.003
0x090a23220f… entry 0.029
0x1595b4818e… entry 0.051
0xbce6698c9a… entry 0.001
0x5e61473936… entry 0.002

Category	PnL (all)	Win rate	n
Sports	$1.05M	87%	2602
Tennis	$-1.96k	84%	31
Eurovision	$1.21k	76%	25
WTA	$997	100%	1
Games	$-488	0%	5
EuroBasket	$-371	33%	3
uncategorized	$303	100%	4
Crypto Prices	$217	100%	2
Euro Basket	$-190	60%	10
Crypto	$178	100%	4
Bitcoin	$58	100%	2
Up or Down	$-46	0%	1

Market (condition)	PnL	Cost	ROI
0x5f5c8d8f…	$-23.6k	$23.6k	-100.0%
0xa5501b4d…	$15.2k	$9.79k	155.3%
0x13cb2bd4…	$15.2k	$24.8k	61.3%
0xedfed776…	$-15k	$15.1k	-99.9%
0x94a2b2a1…	$12.9k	$17.1k	75.4%
0x68f45376…	$12.2k	$7.8k	156.4%
0xc09537a0…	$11.6k	$18.4k	63.3%
0xa90ce8b6…	$11.4k	$2.02k	566.7%
0x2c37e07b…	$11.1k	$16.4k	67.4%
0x7f868e45…	$-10.8k	$10.8k	-100.0%
0x12e12585…	$9.82k	$4.14k	237.4%
0x5962bbb4…	$9.6k	$30.4k	31.6%
0x46fe7c44…	$-9.6k	$9.6k	-100.0%
0x61196ff0…	$9.41k	$11.1k	85.1%
0x933bac1d…	$9k	$21k	42.9%

0xc2c8…5471

Equity curve

Board ranks

Window metrics

Performance

Risk

Consistency

Activity

Behavior

Markets / calibration

Style

Archetype scores

Statistically unusual win pattern

Share

0xc2c8…5471

Equity curve

Board ranks

Window metrics

Performance

Risk

Consistency

Activity

Behavior

Markets / calibration

Style

Archetype scores

Statistically unusual win pattern

Share

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