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0xc03ce4d8af842ca6251ac57228b3ffb166ed50af
Secondary: Contrarian Fader
This wallet is categorized as a Conviction Holder because it concentrates in few markets and holds for long stretches.
Median hold is 26.6 days with held-to-resolution 100% and portfolio HHI 0.07.
Trade count stays relatively low (64058) while add-to-winner share is 50%, favoring concentrating rather than spraying fills.
A close second label is Contrarian Fader, so the book also shows some of that style.
Separately, skill grade C scores forecast quality (Brier/CLV/risk-adjusted return) and is not part of the behavioral label.
Updated 2026-07-19 13:19:17 UTC
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PnL (leaderboard) | N/A | N/A | $425k | $623k |
| Realized PnL | $6.94k | $38.7k | $131k | $316k |
| Win rate | 100% | 100% | 89% | 69% |
| ROI | 97% | 94% | 105% | 98% |
| Sharpe (daily) | ∞ | -0.254 | 0.273 | 0.232 |
| Markets | 39 | 60 | 306 | 365 |
| Best day | $-172 | $3.96k |
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit factor | ∞ | ∞ | 1616.42 | 65.62 |
| Mean trade PnL | $3.47k | $9.67k | $7.25k | $6.58k |
| Median trade PnL | $3.47k | $7.46k | $3.45k | $472 |
| Payoff ratio | N/A | N/A | 202.05 | 29.83 |
| Largest win | $5.83k | $22.7k | $33.2k | $120k |
| Largest loss | N/A | N/A | $-80 | $-1.8k |
| Expectancy | $3.47k |
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PnL volatility | N/A | $7.46k | $53.1k | $32.8k |
| Sortino (daily) | ∞ | -0.178 | 1.687 | 1.389 |
| Calmar | 33.936 | 33.936 | 33.936 | 33.936 |
| Drawdown duration (days) | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 |
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Concentration top-1 | 84% | 59% | 25% | 37% |
| Concentration top-5 | 100% | 100% | 75% | 67% |
| Concentration top-10 | 100% | 100% | 96% | 86% |
| Max win streak | 2 | 4 | 10 | 19 |
| Max loss streak | N/A | N/A | 2 | 6 |
| Odds bucket | 24h win rate | 7d win rate | 30d win rate | All-time win rate | Notional (all) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trade count | 222 | 4876 | 42788 | 64058 |
| Unique markets | 39 | 60 | 306 | 365 |
| Active days ratio | 100% | 125% | 97% | 91% |
| Avg entry price | N/A | N/A | 0.053 | 0.043 |
| Portfolio HHI | 0.406 | 0.318 | 0.105 | 0.066 |
| Maker share (notional) | 0% | 0% | 69% | 77% |
| Two-sided share | N/A |
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Holding time avg (h) | N/A | N/A | 372.7 | 625.3 |
| Holding time median (h) | N/A | N/A | 354.9 | 638.2 |
| Max concurrent | N/A | N/A | 293 | 352 |
| Disposition ratio | N/A | N/A | 0.56 | 1.03 |
| Add-to-winner share | N/A | N/A | 57% | 50% |
| Average-down share | N/A | N/A | 39% | 42% |
| Tilt ratio | N/A |
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Held to resolution | N/A | N/A | 100% | 100% |
| Brier (weighted) | N/A | N/A | 0.6045 | 0.2660 |
| Brier (unweighted) | N/A | N/A | 0.1861 | 0.2542 |
| Entry timing mean | N/A | N/A | 0.454 | 0.444 |
| Exit quality ($) | N/A | N/A | $-2.35k | $-2.25k |
| Exit quality ROI gap | N/A | N/A | -48.6% | -265.7% |
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLV mean | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Alpha ($) | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Alpha ROI gap | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Contrarian score | 0.022 | 0.022 | 0.022 | 0.022 |
| Post-fill drift | -0.0001 | -0.0001 | -0.0001 | -0.0001 |
| Post-fill candles (mean) | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 |
| Post-fill observations | 5593 |
| $215k |
| $215k |
| Worst day | $-172 | $-18.4k | $-18.4k | $-18.4k |
Completeness: partial. Null metrics render as N/A, never zero. Full methodology
| $9.67k |
| $7.25k |
| $6.58k |
| <0.10 |
| N/A |
| N/A |
| 71% |
| 48% |
| 2% |
| 0.10–0.40 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 0% |
| 0.40–0.60 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 95% | 98% |
| 0.60–0.90 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 0% |
| >0.90 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 0% |
| N/A |
| 0% |
| 0% |
| Spread capture | N/A | N/A | 0.0000 | 0.0001 |
| Inventory turnover | 222.00 | 4876.00 | 42788.00 | 64058.00 |
| Capital velocity | 0.04 | 0.33 | 0.99 | 0.51 |
| Avg ticket | $1 | $3 | $3 | $3 |
| Median ticket | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Activity slope (fills/week) | N/A | N/A | -3067.10 | 651.81 |
| Quiet weeks | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| N/A |
| 5.31 |
| 1.03 |
| Category | PnL (all) | Win rate | n |
|---|
| Sports | $145k | 100% | 3 |
| United States | $33.2k | 100% | 1 |
| Main Election | $22.7k | 100% | 1 |
| NBA | $20.6k | 100% | 1 |
| Colombia Election | $20.2k | 100% | 2 |
| Fed | $17.2k | 33% | 6 |
| Politics | $15.2k | 55% | 20 |
| President | $9.25k | 100% | 1 |
| UK | $9.09k | 100% | 1 |
| 2026 FIFA World Cup | $7.95k | 71% | 7 |
| French Election | $6.13k | 100% | 1 |
| Middle East | $5.83k | 100% | 1 |
| Market (condition) | PnL | Cost | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0x7976b8db… | $120k | $124k | 96.7% |
| 0x895e01db… | $33.2k | $33.7k | 98.4% |
| 0x7586a965… | $22.7k | $24.4k | 92.9% |
| 0x22e7b5e3… | $22.2k | $23.8k | 93.3% |
| 0x81e56167… | $20.6k | $21.8k | 94.4% |
| 0x23dbb60a… | $19.5k | $20.3k | 95.9% |
| 0x74e5ba38… | $12.3k | $12.7k | 96.7% |
| 0x849a3e76… | $10.9k | $11.7k | 92.9% |
| 0xfbe85201… | $9.29k | $836 | 1111.3% |
| 0x2d3c4fc5… | $9.25k | $9.4k | 98.4% |
| 0x95a7c8f3… | $9.09k | $9.45k | 96.1% |
| 0x8126317d… | $6.13k | $6.22k | 98.4% |
| 0x6397f084… | $5.83k | $5.92k | 98.4% |
| 0xd2a8caba… | $4.39k | $4.5k | 97.5% |
| 0x713641f7… | $2.97k | $1.59k | 187.1% |
| 5593 |
| 5593 |
| 5593 |