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P Prediction Market News
Cross-venue Polymarket and Kalshi odds, consensus prices, volume, open interest, spread, and resolution rules. Not investment advice.
0x3a95…343b · Polymarket trader | Prediction Market News
Traders / 0x3a95…343b 0X
0x3a95…343b 0x3a959c179cf018395db289eb553d09e70e0f343b
This wallet is categorized as a Scalper because it trades frequently, exits quickly, and rarely holds to resolution.
Trade count is 4954 with median hold 0.4 hours, maker share only 51%.
Capital velocity 1.2 and held-to-resolution 40% point to selling out rather than waiting for settlement.
Separately, skill grade D scores forecast quality (Brier/CLV/risk-adjusted return) and is not part of the behavioral label.
A statistically unusual win pattern flag is present (cheap held-to-resolution wins with a very low joint entry probability); it does not change the behavioral archetype.
Updated 2026-07-19 10:38:07 UTC
Window metrics Metric 24h 7d 30d All-time PnL (leaderboard) N/A $24k N/A N/A Realized PnL $21.1k $-5.68k $31.2k $72.7k Win rate 100% 4% 25% 41% ROI 10028% -16% 56% 25% Sharpe (daily) ∞ 0.577 0.320 0.184 Markets 7 19 183 858 Best day $16.3k $16.3k
Performance Metric 24h 7d 30d All-time Profit factor ∞ 0.83 1.95 1.59 Mean trade PnL $21.1k $-39 $165 $85 Median trade PnL $21.1k $-200 $-133 $-65 Payoff ratio N/A 19.43 5.88 2.30 Largest win $21.1k $21.1k $21.1k $21.1k Largest loss N/A $-660 $-660 $-13.4k Expectancy $21.1k
Risk Metric 24h 7d 30d All-time PnL volatility N/A $5.95k $3.51k $2.16k Sortino (daily) ∞ 7.202 0.921 0.246 Calmar 4.469 4.469 4.469 4.469 Drawdown duration (days) 42.0 42.0 42.0 42.0
Consistency Metric 24h 7d 30d All-time Concentration top-1 100% 35% 22% 7% Concentration top-5 100% 45% 31% 16% Concentration top-10 100% 50% 40% 21% Max win streak 1 5 30 69 Max loss streak N/A 141 141 206
Odds bucket 24h win rate 7d win rate 30d win rate All-time win rate Notional (all)
Activity Metric 24h 7d 30d All-time Trade count 23 182 1214 4954 Unique markets 7 19 183 858 Active days ratio 200% 120% 93% 92% Avg entry price 0.044 0.086 0.154 0.239 Portfolio HHI 0.189 0.069 0.066 0.011 Maker share (notional) 49% 48% 64% 51% Two-sided share 0%
Behavior Metric 24h 7d 30d All-time Holding time avg (h) 3.6 7.0 4.7 5.7 Holding time median (h) 1.6 8.5 0.1 0.4 Max concurrent 4 9 61 368 Disposition ratio 1.81 1.07 0.01 0.07 Add-to-winner share 0% 0% 92% 84% Average-down share 0% 0% 6% 13% Tilt ratio N/A
Markets / calibration Metric 24h 7d 30d All-time Held to resolution 50% 47% 32% 40% Brier (weighted) 0.9803 0.0994 0.1867 0.1983 Brier (unweighted) 0.9803 0.0669 0.1565 0.2048 Entry timing mean 0.864 0.664 0.847 0.700 Exit quality ($) $-0 $-0 $23 $-9 Exit quality ROI gap -0.0% -0.0% 3.2% -13.0%
Style Metric 24h 7d 30d All-time CLV mean -0.0445 -0.0445 -0.0445 -0.0445 Alpha ($) $7 $7 $7 $7 Alpha ROI gap 8.4% 8.4% 8.4% 8.4% Contrarian score -0.252 -0.252 -0.252 -0.252 Post-fill drift -0.0278 -0.0278 -0.0278 -0.0278 Post-fill candles (mean) 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 Post-fill observations 131
Archetype scores Scalper: 67.1% News Sniper: 49.6% Tilted Gambler: 43.1% Contrarian Fader: 31.0% Conviction Holder: 24.0% Worst day $16.3k $-392 $-2.71k $-13.5k
Spread capture 0.1061 0.0255 -0.0122 0.0287
Inventory turnover 23.00 182.00 1214.00 4954.00
Capital velocity 11.74 0.18 1.22 1.18
Activity slope (fills/week) N/A N/A -58.00 1.38
Category PnL (all) Win rate n
Esports $51.1k 45% 749 Sports $24.6k 16% 88 Olympics $-590 0% 4 Awards $-525 0% 1 Inflation $-491 0% 1 Tech $-458 0% 3 Crypto $-322 0% 2 State of Union $-299 0% 1 Bitcoin $-150 0% 1 Equities $-99 0% 1 Earnings $-96 0% 1 Dota 2 $-20 0% 3
Market (condition) PnL Cost ROI 0x650375df… $21.1k $211 10027.6% 0x1bfa4027… $-13.4k $13.4k -100.0% 0x79c98c99… $6.7k $299 2241.2% 0xec99164c… $4.73k $3.92k 120.8% 0x6db23170… $4.38k $346 1263.7% 0xa1178a46… $-3.53k $6.34k -55.7% 0x3df77bf3… $3.27k $172 1900.0% 0xb6dfa9ae… $3.08k $4.31k 71.5% 0xbeb7b125… $2.95k $60 4900.0% 0x9adf5154… $2.91k $54 5415.7% 0xeb437e80… $2.69k $648 414.7% 0x2247cce1… $2.53k $1.21k 208.5% 0xe8270bac… $2.38k $1.08k 220.7% 0x466c8079… $2.1k $11.5k 18.3% 0xf413fbbb… $-2.06k $2.06k -100.0%
0xada7568024… entry 0.260 timing 0.74
0x8b247b01e1… entry 0.240 timing 0.91
0xa27e1408c0… entry 0.160 timing 0.63
0x79c98c9946… entry 0.043 timing 0.31
0xa0bc014d85… entry 0.180 timing 0.73
0x4096ac2c6a… entry 0.291 timing 0.74
0x8b7ef29639… entry 0.190 timing 0.46
0x596d0bcadd… entry 0.230 timing 0.83
0xf5a45e8431… entry 0.268 timing 0.79
0x0a75ecd147… entry 0.050 timing 0.72
0xec99164ce8… entry 0.226 timing 0.84
0xf3cb59e710… entry 0.260 timing 0.75