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P Prediction Market News
Cross-venue Polymarket and Kalshi odds, consensus prices, volume, open interest, spread, and resolution rules. Not investment advice.
0x2c33…0563 · Polymarket trader | Prediction Market News
Traders / 0x2c33…0563 0X
0x2c33…0563 0x2c335066fe58fe9237c3d3dc7b275c2a034a0563
This wallet is categorized as a Scalper because it trades frequently, exits quickly, and rarely holds to resolution.
Trade count is 52875 with median hold 1.0 hours, maker share only 74%.
Capital velocity 0.1 and held-to-resolution 47% point to selling out rather than waiting for settlement.
Separately, skill grade D scores forecast quality (Brier/CLV/risk-adjusted return) and is not part of the behavioral label.
A statistically unusual win pattern flag is present (cheap held-to-resolution wins with a very low joint entry probability); it does not change the behavioral archetype.
Updated 2026-07-19 10:06:40 UTC
Window metrics Metric 24h 7d 30d All-time PnL (leaderboard) N/A N/A ∞ ∞ Realized PnL $402k ∞ $-5.02M ∞ Win rate 55% 70% 56% 59% ROI 4% 3% -1% 2% Sharpe (daily) N/A -0.120 0.155 0.088 Markets 100 355 355 355 Best day $-101k $257k
Performance Metric 24h 7d 30d All-time Profit factor 1.21 1.32 0.91 1.17 Mean trade PnL $4.51k $5.14k $-1.84k $2.01k Median trade PnL $75 $1.49k $129 $38 Payoff ratio 0.99 0.55 0.72 0.82 Largest win $789k ∞ ∞ ∞ Largest loss $-295k $-1.25M $-1.25M $-1.25M Expectancy $4.51k
Risk Metric 24h 7d 30d All-time PnL volatility N/A $414k $664k $262k Sortino (daily) 0.100 -0.075 0.180 0.100 Calmar 3.165 3.165 3.165 3.165 Drawdown duration (days) 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.0
Consistency Metric 24h 7d 30d All-time Concentration top-1 20% 18% 2% 2% Concentration top-5 64% 36% 7% 5% Concentration top-10 77% 49% 11% 8% Max win streak 7 17 25 59 Max loss streak 13 16 41 150
Odds bucket 24h win rate 7d win rate 30d win rate All-time win rate Notional (all)
Activity Metric 24h 7d 30d All-time Trade count 15408 52875 52875 52875 Unique markets 100 355 355 355 Active days ratio 200% 120% 120% 120% Avg entry price 0.336 0.529 0.529 0.529 Portfolio HHI 0.053 0.020 0.020 0.020 Maker share (notional) 88% 74% 74% 74% Two-sided share 38%
Behavior Metric 24h 7d 30d All-time Holding time avg (h) 0.9 4.2 4.2 4.2 Holding time median (h) 0.3 1.0 1.0 1.0 Max concurrent 41 183 183 183 Disposition ratio 0.40 0.13 0.13 0.13 Add-to-winner share 28% 51% 51% 51% Average-down share 57% 40% 40% 40% Tilt ratio 1.06
Markets / calibration Metric 24h 7d 30d All-time Held to resolution 39% 47% 47% 47% Brier (weighted) 0.0663 0.0783 0.1109 0.1118 Brier (unweighted) 0.1640 0.1433 0.1473 0.1816 Entry timing mean 0.568 0.569 0.569 0.569 Exit quality ($) $-14.9k $-9.26k $297 $998 Exit quality ROI gap 14.6% 252.0% 67.5% 40.8%
Style Metric 24h 7d 30d All-time CLV mean -0.1616 -0.1616 -0.1616 -0.1616 Alpha ($) $-243k $-243k $-243k $-243k Alpha ROI gap -13.6% -13.6% -13.6% -13.6% Contrarian score 0.216 0.216 0.216 0.216 Post-fill drift -0.0978 -0.0978 -0.0978 -0.0978 Post-fill candles (mean) 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 Post-fill observations
Archetype scores Scalper: 53.4% News Sniper: 38.5% Favorite Grinder: 32.4% Tilted Gambler: 30.0% Early-Bird Forecaster: 25.7% new
Worst day $-101k $-937k $-1.15M $-1.15M
Spread capture 0.0644 0.0218 0.0218 0.0218
Inventory turnover 15408.00 52875.00 52875.00 52875.00
Capital velocity 1.23 0.51 0.10 0.08
Avg ticket $750 $735 $735 $735
Median ticket $58 $49 $49 $49
Activity slope (fills/week) N/A N/A N/A N/A
Category PnL (all) Win rate n
Sports $9.74M 60% 4533 Esports $1.87M 65% 327 Soccer $580k 7% 41 Iran $197k 75% 4 Tennis $110k 62% 656 Formula 1 $-39.7k 50% 8 Up or Down $37.7k 49% 585 UK Elections $13.7k 100% 1 oleksandr usyk $6.73k 100% 1 Politics $-2.67k 33% 18 Games $-1.81k 0% 1 S&P 500 $1.8k 100% 1
Market (condition) PnL Cost ROI 0x889e0fa1… $1.93M $1.41M 136.6% 0x1525f6e3… $-1.11M $4.82M -23.0% 0xa947b7c6… $920k $5.34M 17.2% 0xc41f543c… $864k $1.09M 79.4% 0x044350e4… $-738k $1.23M -59.9% 0xe70fd51f… $-736k $4.26M -17.3% 0x99f0c39e… $-732k $911k -80.4% 0x8df5a425… $719k $1.82M 39.6% 0x3ceb5b63… $703k $716k 98.2% 0xa5501b4d… $-693k $1.54M -45.0% 0x12e12585… $689k $88.4k 779.8% 0x688954ad… $635k $3.81M 16.7% 0x017f7984… $-635k $2.73M -23.3% 0x2037b257… $624k $988k 63.1% 0x5fd3de37… $-600k $779k -77.1%
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