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0x2663daca3cecf3767ca1c3b126002a8578a8ed1f
This wallet is categorized as a Conviction Holder because it concentrates in few markets and holds for long stretches.
Median hold is 3.9 days with held-to-resolution 100% and portfolio HHI 0.15.
Trade count stays relatively low (32285) while add-to-winner share is 61%, favoring concentrating rather than spraying fills.
Separately, skill grade D scores forecast quality (Brier/CLV/risk-adjusted return) and is not part of the behavioral label.
Updated 2026-07-19 09:40:09 UTC
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PnL (leaderboard) | N/A | $123k | $500k | ∞ |
| Realized PnL | $5.05k | $952k | ∞ | ∞ |
| Win rate | 67% | 80% | 82% | 49% |
| ROI | 24% | 31% | 59% | 50% |
| Sharpe (daily) | N/A | 0.392 | 0.846 | 0.161 |
| Markets | 34 | 74 | 97 | 97 |
| Best day | $560 | $119k |
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit factor | 26.10 | 1.58 | 2.93 | 2.73 |
| Mean trade PnL | $1.68k | $95.2k | $290k | $6.72k |
| Median trade PnL | $1.63k | $87.6k | $113k | $0 |
| Payoff ratio | 13.05 | 0.39 | 0.65 | 2.86 |
| Largest win | $3.62k | ∞ | ∞ | ∞ |
| Largest loss | $-201 | $-1.65M | $-1.65M | $-1.65M |
| Expectancy | $1.68k |
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PnL volatility | N/A | $44.8k | $27.2k | $15k |
| Sortino (daily) | 0.227 | 4.654 | 6.506 | 0.188 |
| Calmar | 7.853 | 7.853 | 7.853 | 7.853 |
| Drawdown duration (days) | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 |
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Concentration top-1 | 66% | 39% | 60% | 53% |
| Concentration top-5 | 100% | 96% | 97% | 88% |
| Concentration top-10 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 93% |
| Max win streak | 2 | 6 | 6 | 9 |
| Max loss streak | 1 | 1 | 1 | 27 |
| Odds bucket | 24h win rate | 7d win rate | 30d win rate | All-time win rate | Notional (all) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trade count | 612 | 5993 | 32285 | 32285 |
| Unique markets | 34 | 74 | 97 | 97 |
| Active days ratio | 200% | 114% | 100% | 100% |
| Avg entry price | 0.027 | 0.108 | 0.064 | 0.064 |
| Portfolio HHI | 0.181 | 0.175 | 0.145 | 0.145 |
| Maker share (notional) | 100% | 99% | 100% | 100% |
| Two-sided share | 0% |
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Holding time avg (h) | 3.7 | 39.3 | 109.2 | 109.2 |
| Holding time median (h) | 3.7 | 34.6 | 93.4 | 93.4 |
| Max concurrent | 33 | 67 | 86 | 86 |
| Disposition ratio | N/A | N/A | 0.79 | 0.79 |
| Add-to-winner share | 42% | 51% | 61% | 61% |
| Average-down share | 19% | 39% | 36% | 36% |
| Tilt ratio | 0.89 |
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Held to resolution | N/A | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Brier (weighted) | N/A | 0.0004 | 0.0004 | 0.1443 |
| Brier (unweighted) | N/A | 0.0003 | 0.0003 | 0.0852 |
| Entry timing mean | 0.309 | 0.377 | 0.669 | 0.669 |
| Exit quality ($) | N/A | $890k | $890k | $3.34k |
| Exit quality ROI gap | N/A | 1012.9% | 1012.9% | 17.1% |
| Metric | 24h | 7d | 30d | All-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLV mean | -0.0136 | -0.0136 | -0.0136 | -0.0136 |
| Alpha ($) | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Alpha ROI gap | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Contrarian score | 0.054 | 0.054 | 0.054 | 0.054 |
| Post-fill drift | -0.0012 | -0.0012 | -0.0012 | -0.0012 |
| Post-fill candles (mean) | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 |
| Post-fill observations | 24601 |
| $119k |
| $193k |
| Worst day | $560 | $-4.44k | $-4.44k | $-180k |
Completeness: partial. Null metrics render as N/A, never zero. Full methodology
| $95.2k |
| $290k |
| $6.72k |
| <0.10 |
| 67% |
| 83% |
| 83% |
| 31% |
| 10% |
| 0.10–0.40 | N/A | N/A | N/A | 51% | 2% |
| 0.40–0.60 | N/A | 75% | 80% | 62% | 87% |
| 0.60–0.90 | N/A | N/A | N/A | 69% | 1% |
| >0.90 | N/A | N/A | N/A | 71% | 0% |
| 0% |
| 0% |
| 0% |
| Spread capture | -0.0010 | 0.0000 | -0.0009 | -0.0009 |
| Inventory turnover | 612.00 | 5993.00 | 32285.00 | 32285.00 |
| Capital velocity | 0.14 | 0.04 | 0.38 | 0.31 |
| Avg ticket | $5 | $22 | $64 | $64 |
| Median ticket | $1 | $0 | $2 | $2 |
| Activity slope (fills/week) | N/A | N/A | -8782.50 | -8782.50 |
| Quiet weeks | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 0.37 |
| 0.13 |
| 0.01 |
| Category | PnL (all) | Win rate | n |
|---|
| Sports | $2.94M | 36% | 76 |
| United States | $274k | 80% | 5 |
| Soccer | $94.5k | 37% | 41 |
| President | $62.1k | 100% | 1 |
| NFL Playoffs | $14.3k | 41% | 34 |
| Esports | $4.51k | 67% | 3 |
| Big Tech | $3.49k | 75% | 8 |
| Fed Rates | $-1.36k | 50% | 2 |
| Geopolitics | $-1.23k | 46% | 26 |
| Iran | $-823 | 43% | 21 |
| NBA | $-735 | 52% | 25 |
| Claude 5 | $-685 | 0% | 1 |
| Market (condition) | PnL | Cost | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0x9b6fef24… | $1.21M | $162k | 745.0% |
| 0x0c4cd205… | $677k | $83.8k | 808.0% |
| 0x7976b8db… | $587k | $4.78M | 12.3% |
| 0x375409bc… | $463k | $105k | 440.7% |
| 0x0f49db97… | $156k | $159k | 98.4% |
| 0x895e01db… | $113k | $115k | 98.4% |
| 0xa0eafdfa… | $64.9k | $6.52k | 996.2% |
| 0x7ad403c3… | $62.1k | $63.1k | 98.4% |
| 0x2b57ed98… | $60.3k | $6.52k | 924.5% |
| 0x959899cd… | $-40.6k | $55.1k | -73.6% |
| 0xc319ae3e… | $-35.6k | $36.9k | -96.5% |
| 0xc914317b… | $32.4k | $208k | 15.6% |
| 0x8df5a425… | $26.4k | $9.35k | 281.8% |
| 0x852fcfca… | $24.8k | $2.35k | 1057.7% |
| 0x1d395b8d… | $-22.1k | $38.1k | -58.0% |
| 24601 |
| 24601 |
| 24601 |