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P Prediction Market News
Cross-venue Polymarket and Kalshi odds, consensus prices, volume, open interest, spread, and resolution rules. Not investment advice.
0x1341…0853 · Polymarket trader | Prediction Market News
Traders / 0x1341…0853 0x1341…0853 0x13414a77a4be48988851c73dfd824d0168e70853
This wallet is categorized as a Scalper because it trades frequently, exits quickly, and rarely holds to resolution.
Trade count is 26164 with median hold 2.1 hours, maker share only 89%.
Capital velocity 0.2 and held-to-resolution 24% point to selling out rather than waiting for settlement.
Separately, skill grade D scores forecast quality (Brier/CLV/risk-adjusted return) and is not part of the behavioral label.
A statistically unusual win pattern flag is present (cheap held-to-resolution wins with a very low joint entry probability); it does not change the behavioral archetype.
Updated 2026-07-19 08:14:05 UTC
Window metrics Metric 24h 7d 30d All-time PnL (leaderboard) N/A $124k N/A $918k Realized PnL $16.5k $260k ∞ ∞ Win rate 50% 92% 81% 86% ROI 193% 76% 36% 40% Sharpe (daily) N/A 0.535 0.000 0.054 Markets 2 55 771 966 Best day $136 $89.9k
Performance Metric 24h 7d 30d All-time Profit factor 813.80 25.95 6.57 4.63 Mean trade PnL $8.27k $6.68k $2.53k $2.68k Median trade PnL $8.27k $1.63k $50 $26 Payoff ratio 813.80 2.22 1.53 0.77 Largest win $16.6k $61.7k $68.1k $190k Largest loss $-20 $-6.37k $-45.6k $-78.2k Expectancy $8.27k
Risk Metric 24h 7d 30d All-time PnL volatility N/A $33k $66.6k $65.9k Sortino (daily) 0.053 0.053 0.000 0.053 Calmar 1.364 1.364 1.364 1.364 Drawdown duration (days) 42.0 42.0 42.0 42.0
Consistency Metric 24h 7d 30d All-time Concentration top-1 100% 22% 3% 1% Concentration top-5 100% 55% 12% 4% Concentration top-10 100% 81% 19% 6% Max win streak 1 26 42 297 Max loss streak 1 1 4 5
Odds bucket 24h win rate 7d win rate 30d win rate All-time win rate Notional (all)
Activity Metric 24h 7d 30d All-time Trade count 3 711 21525 26164 Unique markets 2 55 771 966 Active days ratio 100% 100% 100% 103% Avg entry price N/A 0.673 0.579 0.583 Portfolio HHI 0.715 0.193 0.007 0.005 Maker share (notional) 100% 75% 89% 89% Two-sided share 0%
Behavior Metric 24h 7d 30d All-time Holding time avg (h) N/A 7.6 4.9 17.9 Holding time median (h) N/A 1.1 2.1 2.1 Max concurrent N/A 13 192 266 Disposition ratio N/A 0.11 0.93 0.24 Add-to-winner share N/A 50% 99% 95% Average-down share N/A 30% 1% 5% Tilt ratio N/A
Markets / calibration Metric 24h 7d 30d All-time Held to resolution N/A 22% 21% 24% Brier (weighted) 0.4355 0.1970 0.1261 0.1560 Brier (unweighted) 0.4100 0.2417 0.1859 0.1689 Entry timing mean N/A 0.785 0.871 0.820 Exit quality ($) $0 $-0 $91 $196 Exit quality ROI gap 0.0% -0.3% 7.2% 7.4%
Style Metric 24h 7d 30d All-time CLV mean -0.1567 -0.1567 -0.1567 -0.1567 Alpha ($) $-323 $-323 $-323 $-323 Alpha ROI gap -19.1% -19.1% -19.1% -19.1% Contrarian score 0.035 0.035 0.035 0.035 Post-fill drift -0.0639 -0.0639 -0.0639 -0.0639 Post-fill candles (mean) 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 Post-fill observations
Archetype scores Scalper: 56.9% News Sniper: 47.4% Favorite Grinder: 41.0% Tilted Gambler: 30.0% Conviction Holder: 18.3% Worst day $136 $-3.17k $-116k $-240k
0.10–0.40 100% 100% 55% 65% 8%
0.40–0.60 N/A 100% 76% 80% 30%
Spread capture N/A 0.0124 0.0088 0.0037
Inventory turnover 3.00 711.00 21525.00 26164.00
Capital velocity 0.03 1.61 1.33 0.25
Avg ticket $100 $775 $289 $286
Median ticket $33 $23 $11 $11
Activity slope (fills/week) N/A N/A -1330.50 -710.11
Category PnL (all) Win rate n
Esports $8.05M 84% 2152 Sports $3.59M 83% 1514 2026 FIFA World Cup $51.3k 75% 40 2026 NHL Playoffs $38.3k 80% 10 Soccer $38k 80% 51 Tennis $28.9k 83% 18 Olympics $-26.1k 67% 3 Group Futures $23.7k 76% 21 invitational $17.3k 100% 7 Parent For Derivative $16.6k 100% 6 Super Bowl $16.1k 100% 5 NFL Playoffs $15.3k 100% 42
Market (condition) PnL Cost ROI 0x2ac50471… $150k $30.8k 486.8% 0x6ffbcf26… $135k $47.3k 285.5% 0xb7182857… $122k $128k 95.1% 0xa9f58576… $-78.1k $95.2k -82.1% 0xbedefea5… $-72.3k $72.4k -100.0% 0x9f297733… $-69.5k $70.5k -98.5% 0x396ad611… $69.3k $36.2k 191.4% 0xa0bc014d… $68.5k $45k 152.2% 0xe38c513f… $68.1k $29.2k 233.0% 0x8e156a7b… $-68k $68.7k -99.0% 0xd368c213… $67.9k $93.8k 72.4% 0x884b06d7… $66.3k $261k 25.4% 0xc0be070b… $64.5k $50.9k 126.8% 0xa0800118… $-64k $64.4k -99.5% 0xf01a1851… $63.5k $28.3k 224.4%
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